Bat Changes and Scoring Trends

June 14, 2014

Scoring averages are probably the most stable metric in division one team sports. Yearly deviations can always (for at least as long as I've been measuring them) be explained by changes in scoring (adding the 3-point shot in basketball), rules (clock management in football) or for baseball, equipment. It's not hard to spot changes in bat specifications from the graph of average runs per game in the super-reginal era:

D1 Scoring 1999-2014

Year RS Games WS Std Dev    LS Std Dev   —   MOV Std Dev    TOT Std Dev   —   aSOV Std Dev
1999 7792 9.42 4.81   4.29 3.14   5.13 4.36   13.71 6.85   0.4062 0.2811
2000 7894 9.04 4.67   3.97 2.94   5.08 4.28   13.01 6.52   0.4183 0.2817
2001 7896 8.90 4.56   3.88 2.92   5.03 4.11   12.78 6.45   0.4269 0.2832
2002 7981 8.93 4.66   3.89 2.93   5.04 4.25   12.82 6.52   0.4260 0.2859
2003 7775 8.51 4.50   3.65 2.80   4.86 4.07   12.16 6.29   0.4331 0.2865
2004 7999 8.63 4.50   3.74 2.86   4.89 4.06   12.37 6.35   0.4313 0.2872
2005 7988 8.56 4.50   3.65 2.80   4.91 4.12   12.21 6.26   0.4357 0.2899
2006 8158 8.51 4.35   3.72 2.75   4.78 3.95   12.23 6.12   0.4256 0.2869
2007 8138 8.43 4.33   3.70 2.77   4.74 3.94   12.13 6.11   0.4237 0.2842
2008 8237 8.99 4.53   4.04 2.94   4.96 4.04   13.03 6.48   0.4124 0.2752
2009 8140 9.34 4.64   4.29 2.99   5.05 4.20   13.63 6.57   0.3983 0.2707
2010 8381 9.48 4.74   4.34 3.08   5.14 4.27   13.83 6.76   0.4000 0.2740
2011 8261 7.80 4.07   3.33 2.62   4.47 3.64   11.13 5.80   0.4407 0.2919
2012 8289 7.52 3.97   3.20 2.46   4.32 3.55   10.72 5.57   0.4414 0.2892
2013 8271 7.39 3.93   3.13 2.46   4.26 3.51   10.52 5.54   0.4460 0.2920
2014 8190 7.15 3.85   3.01 2.42   4.14 3.43   10.16 5.44   0.4523 0.2967
Data Source: The College Baseball Game Score Database at Boydsworld.com

It's easier to see in a graph:

Scoring 1999-2014

There actually wasn't a specification change between 2007 and 2008. Teams just began using "bouncier" bats that did meet the specification, leading to the BBCOR bats that couldn't be made "bouncy" required after 2010 looked too much like 1999.

Graphing the components individually:

Average winning score 1999-2014
Average losing score 1999-2014
Average margin of victory 1999-2014
Average total runs 1999-2014

Parity in our lifetime?

% of games decided by 3 or fewer runs

Here's the breakdown by year for margin of victory as percentage of all games:

Percentage of Games
MOV 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1 22.5 21.9 22.2 21.4 22.5 22.8 22.5 22.6 23.3 21.8 21.2 21.9 24.2 25.4 25.4 26.8
2 12.6 13.3 12.6 14.5 13.9 13.5 13.8 14.4 14.4 13.1 13.6 12.9 14.1 14.6 15.4 15.3
3 11.5 11.6 11.4 10.9 11.3 11.4 11.8 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.5 10.9 12.6 12.5 12.8 12.6
4 9.1 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.5 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.2 10.5 10.1 9.8 10.4
5 8.0 7.8 7.4 8.0 8.4 8.2 7.7 8.6 8.3 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.5 7.7
6 6.9 6.7 7.2 6.3 6.8 6.7 7.0 7.1 6.8 7.3 6.8 7.3 6.5 6.8 6.4 6.5
7 5.7 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.8 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 5.8 6.2 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.0
8 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2
9 4.2 3.4 4.2 3.8 3.3 3.8 3.5 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.7
10 3.1 3.3 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.9
11 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.7
12 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3
13 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9
14 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5
15 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
16 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4
17 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
18 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
19 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
20 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
21 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 <.05 0.1 <.05
22 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 <.05 0.1 <.05 0.2 0 <.05 <.05 <.05
23 0.1 0.1 <.05 0.1 0.1 <.05 0.1 <.05 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 <.05 <.05 <.05 <.05
24 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 <.05 <.05 <.05 0.1 0.1 0.1 <.05 0 0 <.05
25 0.1 0.1 <.05 <.05 0.1 <.05 <.05 0.1 <.05 <.05 0.1 <.05 0 <.05 <.05 0
MOV 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
26 0.1 0.1 <.05 0.1 0.1 <.05 <.05 <.05 <.05 <.05 <.05 0.1 0 <.05 <.05 0
27 0.1 <.05 0.1 0 0 <.05 <.05 0 0.1 <.05 <.05 <.05 0 <.05 <.05 <.05
28 <.05 <.05 <.05 <.05 <.05 0.1 <.05 <.05 0 <.05 <.05 <.05 <.05 <.05 0 0
29 <.05 <.05 0 <.05 <.05 0 <.05 0 0 <.05 0 <.05 0 0 0 0
30 <.05 <.05 0 <.05 <.05 0 <.05 0 <.05 0 <.05 0 <.05 0 <.05 <.05
31 0 0 <.05 <.05 0 0 <.05 0 <.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
32 0 <.05 <.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 <.05 0 0 0 0
33 0 <.05 0 0 0 0 0 <.05 <.05 <.05 <.05 0 0 0 0 0
34 <.05 0 <.05 0 0 0 0 <.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
35 0 <.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
38 0 0 0 0 0 <.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
47 <.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 <.05 0 0 0 0 0


In memory of
SEBaseball.com

Paul Kislanko