The 2015 Bluesknight Cup

June 2, 2015

We did a lot of prototyping, and eventually came up with a formula that "felt right" in the sense that any variation with anyone's subjective alternative was easily explained by "anyone" including a subjective (non-quantifiable) criterion to support their informal alternative ranking.

(Editor's note: "I hate the ____" being the most commonly cited one.)

A key component of the Bluesknight metric is that any "how did they do?" argument should be qualified. If 'n' was "too many teams" for a conference, but all that conference's teams finished at or better than their seeding, the "too many" argument can't be objectively supported.

You can get a feel for how it works from a comparison of team results compared to their seed.

Post-Season Results vs Expected Results Rnk Team Sd Conf W L Finish SRW SRL CWSw CWSl C_W C_L 1 Louisiana-Lafayette 3 SBC 3 0 1 0 0 – – – – 1 Virginia 3 ACC 3 0 1 0 0 – – – – 3 Arkansas 2 SEC 3 0 1 0 0 – – – – 4 Virginia Commonwealth 4 A10 3 1 1 0 0 – – – – 5 Louisiana State 1 SEC 3 0 1 0 0 – – – – 5 Louisville 1 ACC 3 0 1 0 0 – – – – 5 Florida 1 SEC 3 0 1 0 0 – – – – 5 Illinois 1 B10 3 0 1 0 0 – – – – 5 Missouri State 1 MVC 3 0 1 0 0 – – – – 5 Vanderbilt 1 SEC 3 0 1 0 0 – – – – 5 Florida State 1 ACC 3 0 1 0 0 – – – – 5 Cal State Fullerton 1 BigW 3 0 1 0 0 – – – – 13 Maryland 3 B10 3 1 1 0 0 – – – – 14 Texas Christian 1 B12 4 1 1 0 0 – – – – 14 Texas A&M 1 SEC 4 1 1 0 0 – – – – 16 Miami Florida 1 ACC 3 1 1 0 0 – – – – Rnk Team Sd Conf W L Finish SRW SRL CWSw CWSl C_W C_L 17 Columbia 3 Ivy 3 2 2   17 St John's 4 BigE 2 2 2   17 Pepperdine 4 WCC 2 2 2   20 Michigan 3 B10 2 2 2   20 Wright State 3 Hor 2 2 2   20 California 3 P12 2 2 2   23 UCLA 1 P12 3 2 2   23 Dallas Baptist 1 MVC 3 2 2   23 North Carolina-Wilmington 2 CAA 2 2 2   23 Florida Atlantic 2 CUSA 2 2 2   23 North Carolina State 2 ACC 2 2 2   23 Iowa 2 B10 2 2 2   23 Radford 2 BigS 2 2 2   23 College of Charleston 2 CAA 2 2 2   23 Rice 2 CUSA 2 2 2   23 Southern California 2 P12 2 2 2   Rnk Team Sd Conf W L Finish SRW SRL CWSw CWSl C_W C_L 33 Cal State Bakersfield 4 WAC 1 2 3   33 Florida International 4 CUSA 1 2 3   33 San Diego State 4 MW 1 2 3   36 Tulane 3 AAC 1 2 3   36 South Florida 3 AAC 1 2 3   36 Stony Brook 3 AE 1 2 3   36 Oregon 3 P12 1 2 3   36 Indiana 3 B10 1 2 3   36 Auburn 3 SEC 1 2 3   42 Bradley 2 MVC 1 2 3   42 Notre Dame 2 ACC 1 2 3   42 Coastal Carolina 2 BigS 1 2 3   42 Oregon State 2 P12 1 2 3   42 Arizona State 2 P12 1 2 3   47 Oklahoma State 1 B12 1 2 3   47 Houston 1 AAC 1 2 3   Rnk Team Sd Conf W L Finish SRW SRL CWSw CWSl C_W C_L 49 Lehigh 4 Pat 0 2 4   49 Morehead State 4 OVC 0 2 4   49 Florida A&M 4 MEAC 0 2 4   49 Ohio 4 MAC 0 2 4   49 Sacred Heart 4 NE 0 2 4   49 Canisius 4 MAAC 0 2 4   49 Texas Southern 4 SWAC 0 2 4   49 Lipscomb 4 ASUN 0 2 4   49 Mercer 4 SoCon 0 2 4   49 Houston Baptist 4 SLC 0 2 4   59 Oral Roberts 3 Summ 0 2 4   59 Texas 3 B12 0 2 4   59 Clemson 3 ACC 0 2 4   62 Mississippi 2 SEC 0 2 4   62 East Carolina 2 AAC 0 2 4   64 UC Santa Barbara 1 BigW 0 2 4

Post Super-Regionals Rnk Team Sd Conf W L Finish SRW SRL CWSw CWSl C_W C_L 1 Virginia 3 ACC 5 0 1 2 0 – – – – 2 Louisiana State 1 SEC 5 0 1 2 0 – – – – 2 Florida 1 SEC 5 0 1 2 0 – – – – 2 Vanderbilt 1 SEC 5 0 1 2 0 – – – – 5 Arkansas 2 SEC 5 1 1 2 1 – – – – 6 Miami Florida 1 ACC 5 1 1 2 0 – – – – 6 Cal State Fullerton 1 BigW 5 1 1 2 1 – – – – 8 Texas Christian 1 B12 6 2 1 2 1 – – – – 9 Virginia Commonwealth 4 A10 3 3 1 0 2   9 Louisiana-Lafayette 3 SBC 3 2 1 0 2   11 Maryland 3 B10 3 3 1 0 2   12 Louisville 1 ACC 4 2 1 1 2   12 Missouri State 1 MVC 4 2 1 1 2   14 Texas A&M 1 SEC 5 3 1 1 2   15 Illinois 1 B10 3 2 1 0 2   15 Florida State 1 ACC 3 2 1 0 2   Rnk Team Sd Conf W L Finish SRW SRL CWSw CWSl C_W C_L 17 Columbia 3 Ivy 3 2 2   17 St John's 4 BigE 2 2 2   17 Pepperdine 4 WCC 2 2 2   20 Michigan 3 B10 2 2 2   20 Wright State 3 Hor 2 2 2   20 California 3 P12 2 2 2   23 UCLA 1 P12 3 2 2   23 North Carolina-Wilmington 2 CAA 2 2 2   23 Florida Atlantic 2 CUSA 2 2 2   23 North Carolina State 2 ACC 2 2 2   23 Iowa 2 B10 2 2 2   23 Radford 2 BigS 2 2 2   23 Dallas Baptist 1 MVC 3 2 2   23 College of Charleston 2 CAA 2 2 2   23 Rice 2 CUSA 2 2 2   23 Southern California 2 P12 2 2 2   Rnk Team Sd Conf W L Finish SRW SRL CWSw CWSl C_W C_L 33 Cal State Bakersfield 4 WAC 1 2 3   33 Florida International 4 CUSA 1 2 3   33 San Diego State 4 MW 1 2 3   36 Tulane 3 AAC 1 2 3   36 South Florida 3 AAC 1 2 3   36 Stony Brook 3 AE 1 2 3   36 Oregon 3 P12 1 2 3   36 Indiana 3 B10 1 2 3   36 Auburn 3 SEC 1 2 3   42 Bradley 2 MVC 1 2 3   42 Notre Dame 2 ACC 1 2 3   42 Coastal Carolina 2 BigS 1 2 3   42 Oregon State 2 P12 1 2 3   42 Arizona State 2 P12 1 2 3   47 Oklahoma State 1 B12 1 2 3   47 Houston 1 AAC 1 2 3   Rnk Team Sd Conf W L Finish SRW SRL CWSw CWSl C_W C_L 49 Lehigh 4 Pat 0 2 4   49 Morehead State 4 OVC 0 2 4   49 Florida A&M 4 MEAC 0 2 4   49 Ohio 4 MAC 0 2 4   49 Sacred Heart 4 NE 0 2 4   49 Canisius 4 MAAC 0 2 4   49 Texas Southern 4 SWAC 0 2 4   49 Lipscomb 4 ASUN 0 2 4   49 Mercer 4 SoCon 0 2 4   49 Houston Baptist 4 SLC 0 2 4   59 Oral Roberts 3 Summ 0 2 4   59 Texas 3 B12 0 2 4   59 Clemson 3 ACC 0 2 4   62 Mississippi 2 SEC 0 2 4   62 East Carolina 2 AAC 0 2 4   64 UC Santa Barbara 1 BigW 0 2 4

The team results are the core of the formula, because conferences can't have results since conferences don't play games. To consolidate post-season results at a conference level, there's a positive factor for the number of at-large bids conference teams received as a fraction of the number of teams in the conference. Conference teams that proceed beyond the regionals accumulate "points" for their conference in a manner that ensures that the conference that includes the champion will wind up at the top of the rankings.

Remember, this metric is not a "which is the best conference?" it is "which conference had the best post-season?" If the conference is so "bad" it only had an automatic qualifer, but that autobid won the whole shebang, that conference had a Really Good post-season.

The current standings are shown below. Conferences that do not have teams in the super-regionals will finish with the same AvgPts they have now, so their ranks can only go down as the Supers and CWS play out.

2015 Bluesknight Cup Standings

Super-Regionals Complete