State of the Schedules 2016

January 24, 2016

The anual schedule analysis is getting boring, in a good way. By selection day the field will be well-enough connected in terms of opponents and opponents' opponents that any reasonable computer ranking will have enough data to be useful. Note to RPI-bashers: there was never as much wrong with the formula as there was with some teams' schedules.

Before we get into the who plays who analysis, here's a summary of the changes in the landscape:

By the end of the regular season over 57 per cent of the 44,850 team pairs will be no worse than opponents' opponents. That will likely be higher depending upon who the TBAs turn out to be. (Note: the schedule updates received by opening day did bump that up to over 59 per cent.) There are 82 teams that will not be connected to at least half the field, but 66 of those will be connected to more than two fifths and only three to less than a third

The field will become connected with games of the third Saturday (March 5) so I'll begin publishing ratings on March 7. By the second weekend of April the ratings should start to settle down, and after the last weekend in April over half of all team-pairs will be connected.

Inter-Regional Game Counts
#Tms↓RoadSouthMidwestCentralMideastEastNortheastAtlanticWest←Home%Inter∑Away
33South42 (5)17 (4)57 (9)11 (5)27 (5)7 (3)76 (8)9 (1)0.9432260
24Midwest46 (1)4041 (4)80 (11)27 (5)0 (4)28 (1)68 (10)0.9404352
35Central131 (3)49 (3)67 (3)32 (2)20 (3)023 (4)25 (1)0.8988324
41Mideast99 (7)98 (7)63 (4)83 (19)79 (21)11 (1)80 (11)75 (11)0.8958631
46East86 (6)31 (8)44 (2)48 (12)124 (16)88 (10)169 (7)46 (2)0.8814626
31Northeast4011 (2)32 (2)26 (14)163 (26)94 (10)125 (14)200.8558503
43Atlantic88 (3)12 (1)36 (4)25 (13)77 (1)8 (5)169 (8)90.8256328
47West31 (1)61 (1)25 (3)24 (7)21 (6)0 (5)9 (1)363 (16)0.5546220
521279298246414114510252←∑Home
66.744.247.928.139.818.560.953.4←%Home
The interesting numbers are those for the West, as all of the other "regions" have significant geographic overlap. Once again more than half of their interconference games are against non-regional opponents.

Inter-Conference Game Counts

AEAACA10ACCASUNB10B12BigEBigSBigWCAACUSAHorIndIvyMAACMACMEACMVCMWNEOVCP12PatSECSoConSLCSWACSummSBCWCCWAC
AE21497131233930191428180017001259601154AE
AAC2111514149612572120121163110512212541470943AAC
A1014111610231233953445211432413612110016616004355A10
ACC9151611176113802515807202815404610227264711041ACC
ASUN71410117012190916041015112630417071718060800ASUN
B1011423177171715221414131315403401664156108501461014B10
B12391601744157108002102416053606113589181215B12
BigE1262311121743047561471441478746514003036BigE
BigS31239381915430299200241835301120213510301100BigS
BigW3550022150053004000644005633040106037BigW
CAA97342591474295642514617008149420401333CAA
CUSA32141516141079366068157403183431928522770CUSA
Hor025801385204600335085060014339410712Hor
Ind19020410600200350300600300000000Ind
Ivy141211710301404560312003020040103000060Ivy
MAAC28114320151527240148351210931213016110000440MAAC
MAC162428114011418061535001061513215015100010218MAC
MEAC83131526304350177030960014100152120901100MEAC
MVC0116434024143604803315062354441193161315MVC
MW0010016167044005001106131343000333122MW
NE1752144608110830622131421001000910300NE
OVC0121061745720118600321103530052551520131200OVC
P12020100153640564300005041300090160045426P12
Pat12116276062394034016015441050012001300Pat
SEC5256271710651334311401011524302590132026922910SEC
SoCon94162618811145102093031010121005012130401440SoCon
SLC61404053500442830000019091516020037459216SLC
SWAC07076080300590000930120002643781512SWAC
Summ104101493011240001001630130190488117Summ
SBC1931086180110327100042111333124322145915801SBC
WCC5454010123060377064101310054094211036WCC
WAC43510141560373012000805220026010016217136WAC
AEAACA10ACCASUNB10B12BigEBigSBigWCAACUSAHorIndIvyMAACMACMEACMVCMWNEOVCP12PatSECSoConSLCSWACSummSBCWCCWAC
See the breakout by game location. The Big West hosts 34 of the 60 matchups with the West Coast, the WCC hosts 25 and there's one neutral site matchup.

As the schedules stand now, there are 1994 inter-conference matchups. Here are the top 100 based upon last year's ISR rankings.

WeekInterest#gmsTeams/Games
23.86783#7 Miami Florida vs #2 Florida
26 Feb Florida at Miami; 27 Feb Florida at Miami; 28 Feb Florida at Miami
123.73111#11 Louisville vs #6 Vanderbilt
10 May Louisville at Vanderbilt
43.72222#13 Oklahoma State vs #10 Dallas Baptist
15 Mar Oklahoma St at DBU; 10 May DBU at Oklahoma St
83.71072#3 Texas Christian vs #10 Dallas Baptist
12 Apr DBU at TCU; 26 Apr TCU at DBU
33.67411#13 Oklahoma State vs #8 Missouri State
8 Mar Oklahoma St at Missouri St
63.61333#14 UC Santa Barbara vs #17 Southern California
24 Mar USC at UCSB; 25 Mar USC at UCSB; 26 Mar UCSB at USC
43.59723#12 Florida State vs #2 Florida
15 Mar Florida St at Florida; 29 Mar Florida vs Florida St; 12 Apr Florida at Florida St
23.55352#14 UC Santa Barbara vs #4 UCLA
1 Mar UCLA at UCSB; 17 May UCSB at UCLA
53.54352#20 Cal State Fullerton vs #17 Southern California
21 Mar Fullerton at USC; 24 May USC at Fullerton
63.52843#7 Miami Florida vs #16 Florida Atlantic
30 Mar Miami at FAU; 20 Apr FAU at Miami; 4 May FAU at Miami
23.46621#19 Houston vs #23 Arkansas
27 Feb Arkansas vs Houston
53.45651#16 Florida Atlantic vs #2 Florida
22 Mar FAU at Florida
43.43933#3 Texas Christian vs #17 Southern California
11 Mar USC at TCU; 12 Mar USC at TCU; 13 Mar USC at TCU
83.42963#14 UC Santa Barbara vs #22 College of Charleston
8 Apr UCSB at C of Charleston; 9 Apr UCSB at C of Charleston; 10 Apr UCSB at C of Charleston
63.40621#19 Houston vs #5 Texas A&M
29 Mar TAMU at Houston
23.40463#12 Florida State vs #22 College of Charleston
26 Feb C of Charleston at Florida St; 27 Feb C of Charleston at Florida St; 28 Feb C of Charleston at Florida St
63.38822#13 Oklahoma State vs #23 Arkansas
29 Mar Arkansas at Oklahoma St; 26 Apr Oklahoma St at Arkansas
23.38361#19 Houston vs #3 Texas Christian
28 Feb Houston vs TCU
13.37681#24 Nevada vs #28 Arizona State
23 Feb Nevada at Arizona St
93.37211#14 UC Santa Barbara vs #24 Nevada
18 Apr Nevada at UCSB
WeekInterest#gmsTeams/Games
63.36832#20 Cal State Fullerton vs #4 UCLA
29 Mar Fullerton at UCLA; 26 Apr UCLA at Fullerton
93.35651#15 Virginia vs #25 Radford
19 Apr Radford at Virginia
23.33791#29 Rice vs #23 Arkansas
26 Feb Arkansas vs Rice
113.33442#8 Missouri State vs #23 Arkansas
3 May Arkansas at Missouri St; 17 May Missouri St at Arkansas
33.33192#20 Cal State Fullerton vs #28 Arizona State
8 Mar Arizona St at Fullerton; 9 Mar Arizona St at Fullerton
13.32841#27 North Carolina State vs #31 Coastal Carolina
20 Feb NC St at Coastal Car
53.29713#19 Houston vs #29 Rice
22 Mar Rice at Houston; 10 May Houston at Rice; 17 May Houston vs Rice
93.29311#34 North Carolina vs #31 Coastal Carolina
19 Apr Coastal Car at UNC
13.28333#26 Iowa vs #10 Dallas Baptist
19 Feb Iowa at DBU; 20 Feb Iowa at DBU; 21 Feb Iowa at DBU
23.27834#31 Coastal Carolina vs #22 College of Charleston
2 Mar Coastal Car at C of Charleston; 22 Mar Coastal Car at C of Charleston; 12 Apr C of Charleston at Coastal Car; 20 Apr C of Charleston at Coastal Car
33.27062#25 Radford vs #6 Vanderbilt
8 Mar Radford at Vanderbilt; 9 Mar Radford at Vanderbilt
23.26862#35 Ohio State vs #31 Coastal Carolina
27 Feb Ohio St at Coastal Car; 29 Feb Ohio St at Coastal Car
53.26603#26 Iowa vs #8 Missouri State
18 Mar Iowa at Missouri St; 19 Mar Iowa at Missouri St; 20 Mar Iowa at Missouri St
33.24051#37 Southern Mississippi vs #33 Auburn
6 Mar Auburn vs USM
53.23843#32 Maryland vs #20 Cal State Fullerton
18 Mar Maryland at Fullerton; 19 Mar Maryland at Fullerton; 20 Mar Maryland at Fullerton
103.23651#30 Notre Dame vs #36 Indiana
26 Apr Indiana vs Notre Dame
13.22061#29 Rice vs #10 Dallas Baptist
23 Feb DBU at Rice
13.21901#15 Virginia vs #31 Coastal Carolina
21 Feb Virginia at Coastal Car
43.21203#40 North Florida vs #41 North Carolina-Wilmington
11 Mar NC-Wilmington at UNF; 12 Mar NC-Wilmington at UNF; 13 Mar NC-Wilmington at UNF
43.20981#32 Maryland vs #38 UC Irvine
16 Mar Maryland at UC Irvine
WeekInterest#gmsTeams/Games
63.19842#42 East Carolina vs #41 North Carolina-Wilmington
29 Mar NC-Wilmington at ECU; 12 Apr ECU at NC-Wilmington
73.18491#29 Rice vs #5 Texas A&M
5 Apr TAMU at Rice
43.17592#9 Illinois vs #31 Coastal Carolina
12 Mar Illinois at Coastal Car; 13 Mar Illinois at Coastal Car
23.17182#3 Texas Christian vs #29 Rice
27 Feb Rice vs TCU; 15 Mar TCU at Rice
103.16382#34 North Carolina vs #41 North Carolina-Wilmington
26 Apr NC-Wilmington at UNC; 11 May UNC at NC-Wilmington
23.15943#36 Indiana vs #20 Cal State Fullerton
26 Feb Indiana at Fullerton; 27 Feb Indiana at Fullerton; 28 Feb Indiana at Fullerton
23.15203#27 North Carolina State vs #39 Wright State
26 Feb Wright St at NC St; 27 Feb Wright St at NC St; 28 Feb Wright St at NC St
123.15082#35 Ohio State vs #16 Florida Atlantic
10 May FAU at Ohio St; 11 May FAU at Ohio St
23.15003#38 UC Irvine vs #24 Nevada
26 Feb Nevada at UC Irvine; 27 Feb Nevada at UC Irvine; 28 Feb Nevada at UC Irvine
23.14903#34 North Carolina vs #13 Oklahoma State
26 Feb Oklahoma St at UNC; 27 Feb Oklahoma St at UNC; 28 Feb Oklahoma St at UNC
13.14643#46 San Diego State vs #45 Oregon
19 Feb Oregon at San Diego St; 20 Feb Oregon at San Diego St; 21 Feb Oregon at San Diego St
43.14442#42 East Carolina vs #34 North Carolina
15 Mar UNC at ECU; 10 May ECU at UNC
123.14262#30 Notre Dame vs #1 Louisiana State
10 May LSU at Notre Dame; 11 May LSU at Notre Dame
13.14243#31 Coastal Carolina vs #41 North Carolina-Wilmington
23 Feb Coastal Car at NC-Wilmington; 16 Mar Coastal Car at NC-Wilmington; 17 May NC-Wilmington at Coastal Car
33.13071#42 East Carolina vs #32 Maryland
6 Mar Maryland at ECU
93.12153#48 Southeastern Louisiana vs #47 Louisiana-Lafayette
15 Apr SE Louisiana at Louisiana; 16 Apr Louisiana at SE Louisiana; 17 Apr Louisiana at SE Louisiana
23.11592#27 North Carolina State vs #41 North Carolina-Wilmington
2 Mar NC-Wilmington at NC St; 22 Mar NC St at NC-Wilmington
43.11113#42 East Carolina vs #29 Rice
11 Mar ECU at Rice; 12 Mar ECU at Rice; 13 Mar ECU at Rice
103.10592#38 UC Irvine vs #17 Southern California
26 Apr UC Irvine at USC; 17 May USC at UC Irvine
133.10381#11 Louisville vs #36 Indiana
17 May Indiana at Louisville
WeekInterest#gmsTeams/Games
33.10142#44 Georgia Tech vs #33 Auburn
8 Mar Georgia Tech at Auburn; 15 Mar Auburn at Georgia Tech
93.09882#42 East Carolina vs #27 North Carolina State
19 Apr NC St at ECU; 25 Apr ECU at NC St
13.09782#38 UC Irvine vs #46 San Diego State
23 Feb San Diego St at UC Irvine; 19 Apr UC Irvine at San Diego St
13.09653#34 North Carolina vs #4 UCLA
19 Feb UNC at UCLA; 20 Feb UNC at UCLA; 21 Feb UNC at UCLA
113.08913#44 Georgia Tech vs #31 Coastal Carolina
29 Apr Coastal Car at Georgia Tech; 30 Apr Coastal Car at Georgia Tech; 1 May Coastal Car at Georgia Tech
33.08781#42 East Carolina vs #48 Southeastern Louisiana
4 Mar SE Louisiana at ECU
103.07431#37 Southern Mississippi vs #47 Louisiana-Lafayette
26 Apr Louisiana at USM
73.07133#50 Michigan State vs #45 Oregon
1 Apr Oregon at Michigan St; 2 Apr Oregon at Michigan St; 3 Apr Oregon at Michigan St
73.06671#30 Notre Dame vs #45 Oregon
31 Mar Oregon at Notre Dame
43.05821#11 Louisville vs #39 Wright State
16 Mar Wright St at Louisville
33.05762#37 Southern Mississippi vs #48 Southeastern Louisiana
8 Mar USM at SE Louisiana; 9 Mar SE Louisiana at USM
13.05473#43 Nebraska vs #22 College of Charleston
19 Feb Nebraska at C of Charleston; 20 Feb Nebraska at C of Charleston; 21 Feb Nebraska at C of Charleston
123.03893#38 UC Irvine vs #4 UCLA
6 May UC Irvine at UCLA; 7 May UCLA at UC Irvine; 8 May UC Irvine at UCLA
23.03443#42 East Carolina vs #15 Virginia
26 Feb ECU at Virginia; 27 Feb ECU at Virginia; 28 Feb ECU at Virginia
33.03041#32 Maryland vs #48 Southeastern Louisiana
5 Mar Maryland vs SE Louisiana
23.03021#29 Rice vs #47 Louisiana-Lafayette
28 Feb Louisiana vs Rice
33.02571#50 Michigan State vs #37 Southern Mississippi
4 Mar Michigan St vs USM
23.02152#54 Tulane vs #48 Southeastern Louisiana
2 Mar Tulane at SE Louisiana; 5 Apr SE Louisiana at Tulane
43.02043#33 Auburn vs #49 Oral Roberts
11 Mar ORU at Auburn; 12 Mar ORU at Auburn; 13 Mar ORU at Auburn
33.01612#54 Tulane vs #47 Louisiana-Lafayette
8 Mar Louisiana at Tulane; 12 Apr Tulane at Louisiana
WeekInterest#gmsTeams/Games
73.01042#37 Southern Mississippi vs #51 Mississippi
5 Apr Ole Miss vs USM; 13 Apr USM at Ole Miss
33.00551#50 Michigan State vs #33 Auburn
5 Mar Auburn vs Michigan St
33.00382#40 North Florida vs #2 Florida
8 Mar Florida at UNF; 9 Mar UNF at Florida
43.00162#20 Cal State Fullerton vs #46 San Diego State
15 Mar San Diego St at Fullerton; 3 May Fullerton at San Diego St
53.00043#56 South Florida vs #50 Michigan State
18 Mar Michigan St at S Florida; 19 Mar Michigan St at S Florida; 20 Mar Michigan St at S Florida
62.99282#46 San Diego State vs #18 Oregon State
28 Mar San Diego St at Oregon St; 29 Mar San Diego St at Oregon St
92.99131#30 Notre Dame vs #50 Michigan State
19 Apr Notre Dame at Michigan St
42.99021#45 Oregon vs #55 Alabama
10 Mar Oregon at Alabama
32.98903#14 UC Santa Barbara vs #45 Oregon
4 Mar UCSB at Oregon; 5 Mar UCSB at Oregon; 6 Mar UCSB at Oregon
32.98181#31 Coastal Carolina vs #51 Mississippi
5 Mar Ole Miss at Coastal Car
52.96692#54 Tulane vs #37 Southern Mississippi
22 Mar USM vs Tulane; 19 Apr USM at Tulane
22.96371#30 Notre Dame vs #52 Bradley
26 Feb Bradley vs Notre Dame
42.95311#37 Southern Mississippi vs #55 Alabama
15 Mar Alabama at USM
42.95242#56 South Florida vs #40 North Florida
16 Mar S Florida at UNF; 12 Apr UNF at S Florida
22.95103#46 San Diego State vs #58 San Diego
25 Feb San Diego vs San Diego St; 1 Mar San Diego at San Diego St; 12 Apr San Diego St at San Diego
72.95041#30 Notre Dame vs #53 Michigan
5 Apr Michigan at Notre Dame
52.94722#26 Iowa vs #52 Bradley
23 Mar Bradley at Iowa; 20 Apr Iowa at Bradley
112.94661#45 Oregon vs #58 San Diego
2 May Oregon vs San Diego
22.93791#43 Nebraska vs #58 San Diego
26 Feb Nebraska vs San Diego
122.93621#60 Texas Tech vs #49 Oral Roberts
10 May Texas Tech at ORU

The full list is sorted by week.

In memory of
SEBaseball.com

Paul Kislanko