2016 D1 Scoring

State of the College Game - 2016

March 8, 2016

I believe it is safe to say that we should all be happy that the little league ball has gone the way of the trampoline bat. It is early to draw too many conclusions from the scoring stats for the season, but not too early. We have about a fifth of the season in the record books and in the absence of equipment or rules changes total scoring is one of the most stable statistics we measure. So far it looks like we're having a lot of fun at the park.

Category	#Games	WS	LS	MOV	TOT	WR%
all	1579	8.04	3.25	4.79	11.29	72.9
neut	291	7.95	3.18	4.77	11.12	73.3
vwin	430	7.97	3.58	4.39	11.55	71.1
hwin	858	8.11	3.12	4.99	11.22	73.7
Conf Games
all	23	7.04	3.65	3.39	10.70	66.0
neut	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.0
vwin	9	7.89	4.22	3.67	12.11	64.3
hwin	14	6.50	3.29	3.21	9.79	67.1

The table at the right does not include the two ties so far (both 5-5 9 inning games.) It is surprising that there have been any conference games this early in the season, not so that there are too few to be very useful. The 8-3 average score is more "reasonable" than those we saw in the pre-bat rules or "rolled bat" eras.

Averages don't tell us everything, though. Disparity in team quality and even for competitive teams that really awful outing skews the curve. If we include only the game-scores that have accounted for 90 per cent of all games, the average is 7.3-3.0, even better for us fans.

The "one out of 10" turns into "one out of 13 because there's more than one score that has occurred the same number of times as the score that includes the 90^th percentile of games. See below for the list of game scores by games with that score.

Some examples of the extreme results that affect the average are:

28 Feb	Northern Illinois has the highest losing score (16 runs) in a loss at Murray State. This is also the game with the highest total runs so far, as Murray State's 29 gave a total of 45.
5 Mar	The largest number of winning teams' runs and the largest margin of victory so far came in Dallas Baptist's 33-8 win over New Mexico. If the Lobos had scored another touchdown this would've been the most total runs.
48 games	Ended in a score that only occurred that one time. The average of those scores is 19.3-6.5, including four shutouts (20-0, 19-0, 18-0 and 16-0.)

There were six more shutouts in the set of game scores that occurred three or fewer times, three each of 17-0 and 14-0. Now you see why I leave out the least common scores in the table below.

Free Fun

All through the first 17 days of the season it seemed to me that there were an awful lot of extra-inning contests. It's been only about one of every 15 games, but about 10 per weekend day. They felt a little different this year, becaue it seemed there were more than usual low scoring extra-inning games, so I checked.

#Gms	Ws	Ls	AvgInn	AvgFree	#Innings
15	4	3	11.1	2.1	12 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 12 13 11 12 11 11
12	6	5	11.6	2.6	12 10 10 10 10 16 12 12 14 11 11 11
11	3	2	11.2	2.2	12 12 11 14 10 10 10 13 10 10 11
9	7	6	10.9	1.9	11 10 12 12 10 10 10 10 13
8	5	4	11.0	2.0	10 10 12 12 11 11 10 12
7	2	1	10.3	1.3	10 10 10 10 11 11 10
6	9	8	10.5	1.5	11 10 11 11 10 10
5	8	7	10.2	1.2	10 10 10 10 11
5	11	10	11.6	2.6	10 12 14 11 11
4	1	0	12.5	3.5	11 12 13 14
3	5	3	11.3	2.3	10 10 14
2	11	9	11.0	2.0	12 10
2	6	4	10.5	1.5	11 10
2	10	9	10.5	1.5	10 11
2	13	11	10.0	1.0	10 10
1	8	5	10	1	10
1	8	4	17	8	17
1	10	7	11	2	11
1	7	5	11	2	11
1	11	8	13	4	13
1	9	6	10	1	10
1	6	2	10	1	10
1	9	7	10	1	10
1	10	8	12	3	12
1	12	10	10	1	10
1	10	4	11	2	11
1	3	1	10	1	10
1	8	6	11	2	11
1	14	13	12	3	12

107	6.12	4.80	←Avg→	2.1

More than half of the extra-innings games finished with scores 4-3, 6-5, 3-2, 7-6 or 5-4. Wouldn't it have been fun to be at any of the four games that were 0-0 after 10 innings?

Most Common Scores Through Games of March 7
(Through the 92.1^th percentile)

WS	LS	#games	Cum%	Of 1581 Games	MoV	Tot	%WR
4	3	65	4.1		1	7	57.1
5	4	54	7.5		1	9	55.6
3	2	53	10.9		1	5	60.0
4	2	49	14.0		2	6	66.7
2	1	45	16.8		1	3	66.7
6	5	43	19.5		1	11	54.5
5	2	40	22.1		3	7	71.4
7	6	31	24.0		1	13	53.8
4	1	29	25.9		3	5	80.0
5	3	28	27.6		2	8	62.5
5	1	27	29.3		4	6	83.3
3	1	27	31.1		2	4	75.0
7	1	26	32.7		6	8	87.5
7	4	26	34.3		3	11	63.6
6	2	26	36.0		4	8	75.0
8	5	25	37.6		3	13	61.5
7	3	25	39.2		4	10	70.0
9	3	24	40.7		6	12	75.0
8	4	24	42.2		4	12	66.7
6	1	24	43.7		5	7	85.7
WS	LS	#games	Cum%	Of 1581 Games	MoV	Tot	%WR
9	2	22	45.1		7	11	81.8
2	0	22	46.5		2	2	100.0
6	4	21	47.8		2	10	60.0
7	2	20	49.1		5	9	77.8
5	0	20	50.3		5	5	100.0
4	0	20	51.6		4	4	100.0
1	0	20	52.9		1	1	100.0
8	2	20	54.1		6	10	80.0
7	5	18	55.3		2	12	58.3
3	0	18	56.4		3	3	100.0
6	3	17	57.5		3	9	66.7
8	1	17	58.6		7	9	88.9
8	7	16	59.6		1	15	53.3
8	6	15	60.5		2	14	57.1
11	10	14	61.4		1	21	52.4
7	0	14	62.3		7	7	100.0
11	2	14	63.2		9	13	84.6
11	0	14	64.1		11	11	100.0
6	0	14	65.0		6	6	100.0
10	7	14	65.8		3	17	58.8
WS	LS	#games	Cum%	Of 1581 Games	MoV	Tot	%WR
9	4	13	66.7		5	13	69.2
10	6	13	67.5		4	16	62.5
9	8	13	68.3		1	17	52.9
10	3	13	69.1		7	13	76.9
11	6	12	69.9		5	17	64.7
8	3	11	70.6		5	11	72.7
10	1	11	71.3		9	11	90.9
11	5	11	72.0		6	16	68.8
9	6	11	72.7		3	15	60.0
10	2	10	73.3		8	12	83.3
10	4	10	73.9		6	14	71.4
10	5	10	74.6		5	15	66.7
9	1	10	75.2		8	10	90.0
9	7	10	75.8		2	16	56.3
10	9	10	76.5		1	19	52.6
8	0	10	77.1		8	8	100.0
11	3	9	77.7		8	14	78.6
9	0	9	78.2		9	9	100.0
9	5	9	78.8		4	14	64.3
12	4	8	79.3		8	16	75.0
WS	LS	#games	Cum%	Of 1581 Games	MoV	Tot	%WR
13	5	8	79.8		8	18	72.2
12	5	8	80.3		7	17	70.6
11	4	7	80.8		7	15	73.3
12	3	7	81.2		9	15	80.0
17	4	7	81.7		13	21	81.0
12	2	7	82.1		10	14	85.7
12	0	7	82.5		12	12	100.0
14	3	7	83.0		11	17	82.4
15	5	6	83.4		10	20	75.0
13	6	6	83.7		7	19	68.4
13	3	6	84.1		10	16	81.3
11	1	6	84.5		10	12	91.7
10	8	6	84.9		2	18	55.6
14	5	6	85.3		9	19	73.7
12	7	6	85.6		5	19	63.2
15	0	6	86.0		15	15	100.0
12	8	5	86.3		4	20	60.0
13	0	5	86.7		13	13	100.0
13	1	5	87.0		12	14	92.9
15	1	5	87.3		14	16	93.8
WS	LS	#games	Cum%	Of 1581 Games	MoV	Tot	%WR
13	10	5	87.6		3	23	56.5
13	4	5	87.9		9	17	76.5
10	0	5	88.2		10	10	100.0
16	2	5	88.6		14	18	88.9
14	4	5	88.9		10	18	77.8
11	9	5	89.2		2	20	55.0
14	2	5	89.5		12	16	87.5
14	1	5	89.8		13	15	93.3
15	3	4	90.1		12	18	83.3
13	8	4	90.3		5	21	61.9
16	1	4	90.6		15	17	94.1
17	3	4	90.8		14	20	85.0
20	4	4	91.1		16	24	83.3
13	11	4	91.3		2	24	54.2
12	1	4	91.6		11	13	92.3
12	11	4	91.8		1	23	52.2
12	9	4	92.1		3	21	57.1
7.30	3.04	Avg			4.26	10.34	72.7

In memory of
SEBaseball.com

Paul Kislanko

State of the College Game - 2016

March 8, 2016

Free Fun

Most Common Scores Through Games of March 7 (Through the 92.1th percentile)

Most Common Scores Through Games of March 7
(Through the 92.1^th percentile)