Regionals' Ratings

Rating the Regional Field

May 27, 2014

A non-controversial selection show? There's a little quibbling going on, but I haven't seen a lot of criticism by objective analysts. The seeding doesn't seem to match any kind of S-curve, but making one of those is the lowest of the committee's priorities so no one complains about that.

One point of discussion has been the four-seed at Gainesville, especially compared to the matching Coral Gables regional. College of Charleston does have a better RPI than two three seeds, but the gap between first and fourth seed is actually smallest at Columbia. Florida also faces only the 10^th-toughest 2/3 pair, and has the next-to-largest gap between #1 and the best of the rest of the region.

Toughest 4-seed	—	2-4 Seeds	—	2-3 Seeds	—	Δ1-4	—	Δ1-Best 2/3
Gainesville, FL	1	Baton Rouge	1	Houston	1	Columbia	1	Louisville
Columbia, SC	2	Gainesville	2	Baton Rouge	2	Gainesville	2	Baton Rouge
Baton Rouge, LA	3	Houston	3	Coral Gables	3	Oxford	3	Coral Gables
Tallahassee, FL	4	Columbia	4	Louisville	4	Baton Rouge	4	Houston
Oxford, MS	5	Oxford	5	Oxford	5	Louisville	5	Stillwater
Nashville, TN	6	Nashville	6	Columbia	6	Nashville	6	Oxford
Charlottesville, VA	7	Louisville	7	Bloomington	7	Tallahassee	7	Columbia
Houston, TX	8	Charlottesville	8	Charlottesville	8	San Luis Obispo	8	San Luis Obispo
Louisville, KY	9	Tallahassee	9	Fort Worth	9	Houston	9	Nashville
San Luis Obispo, CA	10	San Luis Obispo	10	Gainesville	10	Stillwater	10	Fort Worth
Stillwater, OK	11	Coral Gables	11	Corvallis	11	Charlottesville	11	Corvallis
Fort Worth, TX	12	Stillwater	12	Nashville	12	Fort Worth	12	Bloomington
Coral Gables, FL	13	Fort Worth	13	San Luis Obispo	13	Coral Gables	13	Tallahassee
Corvallis, OR	14	Corvallis	14	Lafayette	14	Corvallis	14	Lafayette
Lafayette, LA	15	Bloomington	15	Stillwater	15	Lafayette	15	Gainesville
Bloomington, IN	16	Lafayette	16	Tallahassee	16	Bloomington	16	Charlottesville

It would appear from the fourth column that LSU actually got the toughest draw of the national seeds, by a large margin.

Field-at-a-Glance

I really liked the compact depiction of the field in Baseball America's Road to Omaha coverage of the announcement, so that's what I chose to present the field's RPI (and ISR) ranks by region:


	Corvallis, OR			Stillwater, OK			Houston, TX			Baton Rouge, LA
		RPI	ISR		RPI	ISR		RPI	ISR		RPI	ISR
1	(1) Oregon St	6	1	Oklahoma St	18	11	Rice	7	16	(8) LSU	9	6
4	N Dakota St	248	234	Binghamton	157	184	George Mason	121	138	SE Louisiana	75	79
3	UC Irvine	43	31	Fullerton	54	28	Texas A&M	42	40	Bryant	47	59
2	UNLV	27	33	Nebraska	26	29	Texas	12	8	Houston	10	17
	Tallahassee, FL			Louisville, KY			Nashville, TN			Bloomington, IN
1	(5) Florida St	4	7	Louisville	20	21	Vanderbilt	8	10	(4) Indiana	2	4
4	Georgia Sthrn	89	88	Kent St	126	124	Xavier	99	136	Youngstown	272	273
3	Kennesaw	57	64	Kansas	46	42	Clemson	49	50	Stanford	44	32
2	Alabama	22	36	Kentucky	19	25	Oregon	23	12	Indiana St	21	39
	Gainesville, FL			Coral Gables, FL			San Luis Obispo, CA			Fort Worth, TX
1	(2) Florida	3	13	Miami FL	15	22	Cal Poly	16	3	(7) TCU	11	5
4	C of Charleston	53	58	B-C College	208	216	Sacramento	133	74	Siena	196	227
3	UNC	41	51	Columbia	35	71	Pepperdine	34	20	Sam Houston	37	34
2	LBSU	29	26	Texas Tech	17	18	Arizona St	38	24	Dallas Baptist	28	37
	Lafayette, LA			Oxford, MS			Columbia, SC			Charlottesville, VA
1	(6) Louisiana	5	2	Ole Miss	13	14	S Carolina	14	19	(3) Virginia	1	9
4	Jackson St	268	235	Jacksonville St	90	106	Campbell	66	83	Bucknell	112	155
3	San Diego St	40	23	Georgia Tech	31	46	Old Dominion	36	52	Liberty	30	47
2	Miss St	32	35	Washington	24	15	Maryland	25	43	Arkansas	33	27

Ordinal rankings do not tell the whole story, since there's not the same absolute difference between adjacent ranks. I put the RPI and ISR on the same "scale" by reporting for each team how far above (positive) or below (negative) average the teams' ratings are.


	Corvallis, OR			Stillwater, OK			Houston, TX			Baton Rouge, LA
		RPI	ISR		RPI	ISR		RPI	ISR		RPI	ISR
1	(1) Oregon St	1.979	2.177	Oklahoma St	1.679	1.807	Rice	1.963	1.759	(8) LSU	1.936	1.922
4	N Dakota St	-1.028	-0.791	Binghamton	-0.030	-0.300	George Mason	0.300	0.144	SE Louisiana	0.683	0.666
3	UC Irvine	1.102	1.342	Fullerton	0.966	1.369	Texas A&M	1.161	1.206	Bryant	1.070	0.828
2	UNLV	1.339	1.327	Nebraska	1.345	1.365	Texas	1.902	1.870	Houston	1.930	1.736
	Tallahassee, FL			Louisville, KY			Nashville, TN			Bloomington, IN
1	(5) Florida St	2.153	1.917	Louisville	1.576	1.541	Vanderbilt	1.946	1.826	(4) Indiana	2.183	1.999
4	Georgia Sthrn	0.590	0.600	Kent St	0.250	0.311	Xavier	0.529	0.191	Youngstown	-1.320	-1.327
3	Kennesaw	0.896	0.797	Kansas	1.080	1.163	Clemson	1.027	0.999	Stanford	1.096	1.341
2	Alabama	1.416	1.280	Kentucky	1.580	1.407	Oregon	1.408	1.802	Indiana St	1.454	1.224
	Gainesville, FL			Coral Gables, FL			San Luis Obispo, CA			Fort Worth, TX
1	(2) Florida	2.163	1.800	Miami FL	1.780	1.535	Cal Poly	1.752	2.104	(7) TCU	1.916	1.968
4	C of Charleston	0.987	0.832	B-C College	-0.494	-0.604	Sacramento	0.179	0.686	Siena	-0.352	-0.742
3	UNC	1.165	0.985	Columbia	1.240	0.696	Pepperdine	1.242	1.603	Sam Houston	1.195	1.320
2	LBSU	1.284	1.386	Texas Tech	1.740	1.681	Arizona St	1.187	1.463	Dallas Baptist	1.317	1.269
	Lafayette, LA			Oxford, MS			Columbia, SC			Charlottesville, VA
1	(6) Louisiana	2.066	2.155	Ole Miss	1.807	1.784	S Carolina	1.799	1.674	(3) Virginia	2.189	1.830
4	Jackson St	-1.279	-0.802	Jacksonville St	0.574	0.452	Campbell	0.760	0.627	Bucknell	0.377	-0.040
3	San Diego St	1.171	1.525	Georgia Tech	1.272	1.066	Old Dominion	1.215	0.978	Liberty	1.278	1.044
2	Miss St	1.256	1.312	Washington	1.382	1.773	Maryland	1.355	1.112	Arkansas	1.254	1.371

All in all, as fair a field as we've seen in awhile.

Here are the same lists based upon ISR values.

Toughest 4-Seed	—	2-4 Seeds	—	2-3 Seeds	—	Δ1-4	—	Δ1-Best
Gainesville, FL	1	San Luis Obispo	1	Houston	1	Gainesville	1	Coral Gables
San Luis Obispo, CA	2	Oxford	2	San Luis Obispo	2	Columbia	2	Houston
Baton Rouge, LA	3	Baton Rouge	3	Oxford	3	Louisville	3	Oxford
Columbia, SC	4	Houston	4	Lafayette	4	Baton Rouge	4	Nashville
Tallahassee	5	Gainesville	5	Nashville	5	Tallahassee	5	Louisville
Oxford, MS	6	Nashville	6	Stillwater	6	Oxford	6	Baton Rouge
Louisville, KY	7	Louisville	7	Corvallis	7	San Luis Obispo	7	Gainesville
Nashville, TN	8	Columbia	8	Fort Worth	8	Houston	8	Stillwater
Houston	9	Tallahassee	9	Louisville	9	Nashville	9	Charlottesville
Charlottesville, VA	10	Stillwater	10	Bloomington	10	Charlottesville	10	San Luis Obispo
Stillwater, OK	11	Charlottesville	11	Baton Rouge	11	Stillwater	11	Columbia
Coral Gables, FL	12	Lafayette	12	Charlottesville	12	Coral Gables	12	Lafayette
Fort Worth, TX	13	Corvallis	13	Coral Gables	13	Fort Worth	13	Tallahassee
Corvallis, OR	14	Fort Worth	14	Gainesville	14	Lafayette	14	Fort Worth
Lafayette, LA	15	Coral Gables	15	Columbia	15	Corvallis	15	Bloomington
Bloomington, IN	16	Bloomington	16	Tallahassee	16	Bloomington	16	Corvallis

Difference between #1 and best of the rest

In memory of
SEBaseball.com

Paul Kislanko